美联储降息“走钢丝”：25基点太少，50基点太多

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut since December 2024, lowering rates by 25 basis points [1] - Newly appointed Fed Governor Stephen I. Miran voted against the decision, advocating for a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points, reflecting a stance aligned with former President Trump's policies [2][18] - The Fed's dual mandate is shifting focus from combating inflation to boosting employment, as indicated by the latest meeting statement [3][6][7] Group 2 - Barclays Research predicts a slight increase in the unemployment rate and heightened risks in the job market, forecasting two additional 25 basis point cuts in October and December, with further cuts in 2026 if unemployment rises unexpectedly [5][17] - The Fed's dot plot indicates a median expectation of a total rate cut of 0.5 percentage points by the end of the year, suggesting a preference for gradual cuts [8][9] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the delicate balance between stabilizing prices and achieving full employment, noting that while inflation has decreased, core inflation remains around 3%, above the 2% target [12][13] Group 3 - The Fed's statement removed previous affirmations of a robust labor market, acknowledging a slowdown in job growth and a slight rise in unemployment [7] - The economic forecast for 2026 shows an upward revision in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation to 2.6%, indicating a longer path to achieving the 2% target [11] - The market's reaction to the rate cut was mixed, with initial gains in U.S. stocks followed by a reversal, while the dollar weakened and gold prices rose [24][25][30] Group 4 - Analysts express concerns about the potential for speculative bubbles due to additional monetary easing in a seemingly stable economy, with warnings about the implications of continued job market weakness [27][28] - The historical context of past rate cuts shows that U.S. stocks have experienced declines during certain periods of easing, while gold has often risen, suggesting a complex relationship between monetary policy and market performance [36][38]