凌晨重磅！美联储降息25个基点，鲍威尔“放鸽”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024, primarily due to slower job growth and economic uncertainty [1][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Economic Indicators - The decision to cut rates comes amid rising inflation and disappointing job growth, with recent indicators showing a slowdown in economic activity and increased risks in the labor market [1][5]. - The Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, agency bonds, and agency mortgage-backed securities, maintaining the current pace of balance sheet reduction [1]. - The dot plot indicates that Fed officials expect an additional 50 basis points cut by the end of the year, with further cuts of 25 basis points each year for the next two years [1][4]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions Among Officials - Newly appointed Fed Governor Stephen Milan is the only dissenting voice, advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead of the 25 basis points implemented [1][4]. - Among the 19 officials, 7 predict no further cuts this year, while 9 believe there will be two more 25 basis point cuts, indicating a divided outlook on future rate adjustments [4][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Implications - Following the rate cut announcement, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones rising by 260.42 points (0.57%) while the Nasdaq fell by 72.63 points (0.33%) [7]. - Gold prices have seen significant increases, with a 100% rise over the past two years and a 45% increase this year, reflecting market expectations of further rate cuts [6][10]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed's dovish stance may benefit risk assets, but caution that political pressures and economic data could influence future rate decisions [10][11].