基本面的驱动效应有望增强

Economic Overview - In August, the national industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with a slight month-on-month growth of 0.37%, supported by high growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan in August, growing by 3.4% year-on-year, while the growth rate of commodity retail decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 3.6% [1] - Fixed asset investment from January to August was 326,111 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, reflecting a decline in real estate development investment and a slight decrease in infrastructure and manufacturing investment [1] Foreign Trade - In August, exports grew by 4.4% year-on-year, down from 7.2% in the previous month, with strong performance in electromechanical products and ship exports [2] - High-tech products, integrated circuits, and ship exports contributed 4.1 percentage points to the overall export growth [2] Policy Measures - A comprehensive policy initiative was announced on September 16 to stimulate service consumption, including 19 specific measures aimed at enhancing supply and demand [3] - The initiative focuses on increasing the supply of high-quality services and reducing consumption barriers through fiscal incentives and innovative credit options [3] - The Ministry of Commerce has introduced over 30 policies to establish a "1+N" policy system for service consumption, with plans for further targeted documents to promote high-quality development in the accommodation sector and integration of railways and tourism [3] Real Estate and Fiscal Policy - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have implemented new policies to relax purchase and loan restrictions in the real estate sector, with more measures expected to stabilize the market [4] - The Ministry of Finance emphasized maintaining continuity and stability in fiscal policy while enhancing flexibility and foresight to support high-quality economic development [4] Market Outlook - The stock index has shown a fluctuating upward trend driven by valuation, with economic fundamentals and corporate earnings not significantly impacting the index [4] - Future improvements in economic fundamentals and A-share profitability are anticipated, supported by coordinated policy efforts and a low base effect from the previous year [4]