美联储重启宽松周期，历史高位的美股将如何演绎？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut marks the end of a prolonged period of monetary policy stagnation, raising questions about market reactions and investment strategies moving forward [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions to Fed's Rate Cut - Investors are speculating on how the market will respond to the restart of the easing cycle, with some betting on further gains in risk assets [1]. - Société Générale has increased its recommended equity allocation from 44% to 50% while reducing cash holdings from 10% to 5%, indicating a bullish outlook on risk assets [1]. - Historical data shows that U.S. equities typically deliver strong returns immediately following the first rate cut and continue to perform well over the next 12 to 24 months [1]. Group 2: Sector Rotation and Investment Strategies - The Fed's rate cut is expected to drive sector rotation, with funds moving from defensive sectors like utilities and healthcare to high-risk growth sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary [3]. - In the early stages of a rate cut cycle, defensive sectors tend to perform better, but as the policy effects materialize, growth and cyclical sectors are likely to take the lead [3]. - High-growth sectors, particularly communication services and consumer discretionary, have shown significant gains this year, with increases of 27.4% and 17.6% respectively [3]. Group 3: Small-Cap Stocks as Beneficiaries - Small-cap stocks are gaining attention as potential beneficiaries of the Fed's rate cut, with the Russell 2000 index rising nearly 10.5% this quarter, outperforming major large-cap indices [4]. - Small-cap stocks, which are sensitive to interest rate changes, still have upside potential despite recent rebounds, as their valuations remain relatively low compared to large-cap stocks [4]. - The future performance of small-cap stocks is contingent on the Fed's signaling regarding further rate cuts, which could support their upward momentum [4][5].