楼市涨跌已明确了？央媒“表态”，未来5年，还能不能继续买房？

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is undergoing a significant adjustment, shifting from an investment-driven model to one focused on meeting residential needs, as emphasized by various central media outlets [3][5][7]. Group 1: Market Trends - The proportion of real estate in urban residents' total assets is 68%, indicating its importance in family asset allocation [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 5.8% year-on-year, and sales revenue fell by 3.2% [2]. - The real estate sector is no longer seen as a primary engine for economic growth but is transitioning to serve public needs [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is experiencing a cooling off, with residential land supply in 300 cities down by 15.7% year-on-year and land transfer income down by 18.3% [8]. - New housing starts have decreased by 22.5% year-on-year, indicating a cautious approach from developers [8]. - Population changes are affecting housing demand, with a total population of 1.402 billion in 2025, a decrease of 2.08 million from 2024, and a natural growth rate of -1.48‰ [8]. Group 3: Future Market Predictions - The real estate market is expected to see increased regional differentiation, with core cities likely to experience stable or moderate price increases, while many third and fourth-tier cities may face price declines of 10% to 20% [10]. - The demand for small to medium-sized homes (90-120 square meters) is strong, accounting for 72% of transactions in the first half of 2025, an increase of 8 percentage points from 2024 [10]. - The financial environment is expected to remain cautious, with stable mortgage rates but increased difficulty in obtaining loans based on individual qualifications and property value potential [10]. Group 4: Buyer Segmentation - First-time homebuyers with stable jobs in first-tier cities are in a favorable position to enter the market, as significant price drops are unlikely [12]. - Current conditions are advantageous for those looking to upgrade their homes, particularly in the second-hand market where listings have increased by 22% year-on-year [12]. - Investment buyers may find it challenging to achieve returns, with rental yields in first-tier cities projected at only 1.8% to 5%, lower than bank deposit rates [13].