去库难以持续 对纯碱价格反弹不宜过度乐观

Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in soda ash inventory since mid-August and the recent price rebound may not indicate a fundamental improvement in the industry, as supply remains excessive and effective destocking has not occurred [1][2][3][5]. Group 1: Inventory Trends - Soda ash factory inventory has decreased for four consecutive weeks, reaching 1.7975 million tons, down 113,300 tons or 5.93% from the historical peak of 1.9108 million tons [2]. - However, social inventory has increased to 540,000 tons, up 90,000 tons from 450,000 tons in early August, indicating a transfer of inventory rather than effective destocking [2]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - There is a slight improvement in downstream demand as glass prices strengthen with the arrival of the peak season, leading to an increase in glass production [3]. - Daily production of float glass rose to 160,175 tons, up 600 tons from August, while photovoltaic glass production also increased by 600 tons to 88,780 tons [3]. - Despite the overall increase in glass production, light soda ash inventory has been accumulating, indicating limited improvement in its downstream demand [3]. Group 3: Export Considerations - Soda ash exports have significantly increased, with a total of 1.154 million tons exported from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 128.38% [4]. - However, rising domestic prices may hinder export growth, as the export price in July was approximately 1,260 yuan per ton, which could lead to diminished export profits and exacerbate domestic oversupply [4]. Group 4: Production and Supply Outlook - The summer maintenance period for soda ash plants is ending, leading to a rise in operating rates and production levels, with a record output of 761,100 tons reported [5]. - The weekly demand for heavy soda ash from glass production is estimated at 348,500 tons, indicating a surplus of approximately 73,200 tons [5]. - With new production capacities coming online and the production season starting, soda ash supply is expected to remain high, and factory inventories may begin to accumulate again [5].