Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-18 00:34Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025, aligning with market expectations, as stated in a report by CITIC Securities [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The rate cut is described as a risk management measure, with a focus on mitigating risks in the employment market [1] - The dot plot indicates a target interest rate midpoint of 3.6% for this year, down from the previously indicated 3.9% in June [1] - The Federal Reserve has raised its economic growth forecast for the U.S. while maintaining its predictions for inflation and unemployment rates [1] Group 2: Future Projections - CITIC Securities anticipates further rate cuts of 25 basis points in the upcoming meetings in October and December [1] - Clarity on the interest rate path for 2026 is expected only after the appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chair [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, the U.S. Treasury market exhibited a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" behavior, while U.S. stocks showed characteristics of "catching up," with the Dow Jones and small-cap stocks performing well [1] - The report suggests downplaying the guidance from this meeting regarding next year's interest rate path, predicting a continued weak status for the U.S. dollar and a favorable outlook for gold [1]