10月以后库存可能会再度累积 苯乙烯价格预计先扬后抑

Core Viewpoint - The styrene market is experiencing upward pressure due to significant inventory reduction and supply disruptions, despite weak demand indicators in downstream sectors [1][3][4]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Styrene futures prices have shown strength, moving above the 7000-7100 yuan/ton range, driven by a notable decrease in port inventories [1]. - Recent maintenance schedules have led to unexpected supply losses, with major facilities like Guangdong Petrochemical and New Puxian Chemical undergoing significant repairs, resulting in a drop in industry operating rates to 75% [3]. - The autumn maintenance scale is higher than expected, which has contributed to the recent strength in styrene futures prices. However, supply pressures are anticipated to return as most maintenance operations are expected to resume production by October [3]. Group 2: Demand and Consumption - The production growth rates for major white goods such as air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators have significantly lagged behind last year's figures, indicating weak demand in the downstream market [4]. - Despite the weak demand, there is still policy support that may prevent a significant decline in styrene prices, with recent inventory reductions providing some price support [4]. - As of mid-September, styrene inventories at major ports in East China have decreased to 159,000 tons, down nearly 40,000 tons over two weeks, indicating a potential for further inventory reduction this month [4]. Group 3: Cost and Market Sentiment - Short-term cost stabilization is observed, with the chemical sector benefiting from a reduction in internal competition and potential consumption-boosting policies [2]. - The Brent crude oil price is expected to maintain a wide fluctuation range, with a low point unlikely to fall below $58 per barrel, which may influence the cost structure of styrene production [2]. - The overall sentiment in the market is influenced by macroeconomic factors and the balance between weak current realities and strong expectations, which will be crucial for styrene price movements in the future [4].