港股早参丨美联储如期降息25个基点，最新点阵图显示年内或将再降息两次

Market Overview - On September 17, Hong Kong's three major indices collectively rose, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 1.78% to 26,908.39 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 4.22% to 6,334.24 points, reaching a new high, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 2.24% to 9,596.77 points [1] - Technology stocks surged, with Baidu Group rising over 15.5%, Alibaba increasing by over 5%, and Meituan up nearly 5%. Automotive stocks also performed well, with NIO rising nearly 11.5% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) closed up by 4% [1] Southbound Capital - On September 17, southbound funds recorded a net purchase of HKD 9.44 billion, with Alibaba and Meituan receiving net purchases of HKD 5.051 billion and HKD 2.1 billion, respectively [2] - Year-to-date, southbound funds have accumulated a net purchase of HKD 1,093.604 billion, significantly exceeding the total net purchase for the entire previous year [2] U.S. Market Performance - Overnight, U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up by 0.57%, the S&P 500 down by 0.1%, and the Nasdaq down by 0.33% [2] - Notable gainers included American Express and Caterpillar, both rising over 2%, while the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by 2.85%, with Baidu up over 11% and NIO up over 6% [2] Key News - On September 18, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024. The latest dot plot indicates that most Fed officials expect two more rate cuts in 2025 [3] - The FOMC statement highlighted increased downside risks to employment and a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year, alongside rising inflation [3] Short Selling Data - On September 17, a total of 640 Hong Kong stocks were short-sold, with a total short-selling amount of HKD 32.596 billion. Alibaba, Baidu Group, and Tencent Holdings had the highest short-selling amounts, at HKD 4.735 billion, HKD 2.629 billion, and HKD 2.498 billion, respectively [5] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the Fed's rate cut impacts asset channels, including lower financing costs and liquidity easing, which may favor emerging markets and high-risk assets. Long-term rates falling could benefit long-duration assets like tech growth stocks and gold [6] - The report suggests that while the Fed's rate cut improves macro growth expectations, the transmission may take time, with asset performance likely to follow a sequence of stocks first, then commodities. Given the upcoming holidays, the domestic stock market is expected to remain in a sideways trend in the short term [6] Hong Kong ETFs - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) focuses on e-commerce and new consumption sectors, which are relatively scarce compared to A-shares [7] - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) includes core AI assets and encompasses technology leaders that are also relatively scarce compared to A-shares [8]