美联储再度九月降息 平衡术下释放哪些深层信号

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since the end of 2024, amid a weakening job market and political pressures [1][4]. Summary by Sections Rate Cut Context - The rate cut comes against a backdrop of a softening job market and significant political turmoil, contrasting sharply with the previous year's more aggressive 50 basis point cut [4]. - The current economic environment is more complex, with rising unemployment and a slowdown in hiring, making the job market a primary concern for the Fed [4][8]. Economic Projections and Dot Plot - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot indicate that two more 25 basis point cuts are expected this year, potentially lowering rates to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% by the end of 2025 [6]. - Long-term interest rate expectations have been adjusted downward, with projections for 2026 and 2027 indicating rates around 3.50% to 3.75% and 3.25% to 3.50%, respectively [6][7]. Internal Disagreements - There is a notable division among Fed members, with some advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points, while the majority favored a more cautious approach [7][9]. - Powell emphasized that the decision for a 25 basis point cut was a consensus choice reflecting a gradual and controlled approach to monetary policy [7][9]. Powell's Press Conference Highlights - Powell stated that the 50 basis point cut did not receive broad support, and the 25 basis point reduction was deemed appropriate for risk management [8][9]. - The focus has shifted towards balancing employment and inflation, indicating a potential acceleration in rate cuts if job data continues to deteriorate [8][12]. - Powell defended the Fed's independence in the face of political pressure, asserting that decisions are based on data rather than political influence [8][12]. Overall Implications - The rate cut signals a cautious approach to monetary policy, balancing the need for economic support with the imperative to maintain the Fed's independence [12][14]. - The Fed's actions reflect a delicate balancing act between responding to economic pressures and resisting political interference, highlighting the ongoing challenges in maintaining policy credibility [14].