美联储鹰派降息25基点引发市场巨震，“卖事实”应验｜美股一线

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that this does not signal the start of a long-term easing cycle, dampening market enthusiasm [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The recent rate cut is characterized as a "risk management" measure, aimed at preemptively addressing potential economic slowdowns rather than a shift to aggressive monetary easing [3]. - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the necessity of further rate cuts this year, with opinions ranging from one official advocating for a rate hike to others suggesting additional cuts [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. stock indices experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.57% to 46,018.32 points, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.33% to 22,261.33 points, and the S&P 500 decreased by 0.10% to 6,600.35 points [3]. - The dollar index initially dropped by 0.4% after the rate cut but later recovered to rise by 0.3% following Powell's press conference, indicating a complex market response to the Fed's signals [4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Powell indicated that inflation risks are skewed to the upside while employment risks are leaning downward, suggesting a challenging economic environment [4]. - The Fed's projections for 2026 indicate a more hawkish stance, with officials expecting only one additional rate cut next year, which is less than market expectations of two to three cuts [4].