帮主郑重9月18日盘前策略：美联储降息落地！A股今日决战3900点

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the first cut in nine months since December 2024, indicating a shift towards global liquidity easing [1][3] - The decision aligns with 96% of market expectations, but the dot plot suggests two more cuts this year, which is more conservative than market anticipations [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market showed mixed reactions, with the Nasdaq down 0.33%, while the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index surged by 2%, indicating increased foreign investment interest in Chinese assets [4] - The offshore RMB exchange rate surpassed 7.09, reaching a new high since November 2024, and the U.S. dollar index fell to 96.22, a two-year low, which is favorable for A-share northbound capital [4] Group 3: Domestic Policy Support - The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments have introduced 19 measures to boost consumption, directly benefiting the tourism sector [5] - The Ministry of Science and Technology held a conference to announce achievements in technology innovation, with potential positive sentiment for the semiconductor and AI sectors [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has been oscillating between 3850 and 3900 points for 12 days and is at a critical decision point, closing at 3876 points, just 20 points shy of the previous high [6] - A breakout above 3880 points could target 3935 points, while the ChiNext Index shows a bullish trend with support at 3010-3020 points and pressure at 3180 points [6] Group 5: Capital Flow Dynamics - Domestic capital has aggressively bought into the technology sector, with significant inflows into robotics (12 billion), semiconductors (8.5 billion), and leading new energy stocks [8] - Northbound capital saw a net outflow of 5.18 billion, primarily reducing positions in consumer and financial sectors, raising questions about potential foreign capital inflows today [8] Group 6: Market Sentiment and Risks - Despite the Fed's rate cut, some market expectations have already been priced in, with historical data indicating a 60% chance of a pullback after rate cuts, particularly in tech stocks that have seen significant gains [9] - The retail sentiment index has risen to 75.3, nearing a short-term overheating zone, suggesting a need to be cautious of sentiment reversal risks [9] Group 7: Sector Opportunities - Focus on interest-sensitive technology sectors such as semiconductors, AI computing, and robotics, which are likely to benefit directly from liquidity easing [10] - Sectors benefiting from RMB appreciation include paper manufacturing, financial services, and Hong Kong tech ETFs, as the offshore exchange rate surpasses 7.09 [10] - Consumption-driven sectors such as tourism, sports, and childcare services are expected to gain from the new consumption policies [10]