高盛点评美联储决议：10月降息有望

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September marks the beginning of a new easing cycle [1] Group 1: Key Signals from the Federal Reserve - Signal One: The dot plot indicates a more aggressive stance, with a narrow 10 to 9 vote supporting three rate cuts this year, exceeding Goldman Sachs' previous expectation of two [2] - Signal Two: The policy statement has shifted towards a more accommodative tone, mirroring language used in previous meetings that preceded rate cuts [3] - Signal Three: Chairman Powell emphasized concerns about the labor market, noting that it is "indeed cooling," with rising unemployment indicating a more severe decline in labor demand [4] - Signal Four: Powell characterized the recent rate cut as a "risk management cut," aimed at addressing downside risks in the labor market [6] - Signal Five: Powell suggested that the bond market's pricing of the entire rate cut path could provide substantial support to the economy, implying that the Fed will need to follow through on this path [9][10] Group 2: Implications of Goldman Sachs' Analysis - Goldman Sachs' analysis indicates that the Fed's rate path, based on probability-weighted calculations, appears more dovish than current market pricing, suggesting that the market may need to adjust to further rate cut expectations [11]