“在为未来做决策规划时，大部分研究都是无用功”

Core Insights - Barry Diller emphasizes the importance of intuition over traditional foresight in predicting industry trends and making business decisions [3][4][5] - The limitations of data in predicting audience preferences are highlighted, suggesting that most predictive research is often futile [4][5] - Diller advocates for a non-goal-oriented approach to leadership, focusing instead on the process and the importance of passionate debate in decision-making [5][7][9] Group 1: Leadership Philosophy - Diller believes that maintaining a pure intuition is crucial for innovation, warning against cynicism that can stifle creativity [3][4] - He argues that setting specific business goals can be counterproductive, preferring a more organic approach to career development and business strategy [5][10] - The value of passionate debate in decision-making is emphasized, as it can lead to better outcomes and clearer insights [7][9] Group 2: Business Strategy - Diller recounts a critical moment during the acquisition of Expedia, where a decision was made amidst uncertainty, highlighting the importance of decisive action [6][10] - He stresses the need to evaluate risks before making investments, suggesting that limiting expectations on potential returns can be detrimental [9][10] - The focus on building strong, recognizable brands is presented as a key strategy for navigating the challenges posed by AI and changing market dynamics [14] Group 3: Hiring Practices - Diller critiques traditional hiring practices that rely heavily on resumes, advocating for a focus on dynamic and capable individuals [11][12] - He suggests that the best hiring strategy involves recruiting from the ground up, allowing for mutual learning and growth within the organization [12] Group 4: Future Outlook - Diller expresses skepticism about the ability of AI to create genuine content, emphasizing the unpredictability of its impact on the industry [12][13] - He warns that the rise of AI could disrupt traditional content distribution methods, urging companies to focus on strengthening their brand identity as a defensive strategy [14]