总台记者观察丨美联储宣布降息 欧洲经济面临多重影响

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points marks a significant shift in monetary policy, which is expected to have multiple impacts on the European economy [1]. Group 1: Impact on European Markets - Historical data suggests that European stock markets tend to perform well in the 3 to 6 months following a Federal Reserve rate cut, primarily due to increased market liquidity and the attractiveness of European markets for investors seeking higher returns [1]. - The rate cut is anticipated to strengthen the euro against the dollar, enhancing the appeal of euro-denominated assets and potentially attracting more investment [3]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - The appreciation of the euro may lead to higher prices for European exports, negatively impacting export-oriented industries as they struggle to compete with cheaper goods, particularly from the U.S., which could hinder overall economic growth in the EU [5]. - The eurozone's economic growth was already under pressure, with a mere 0.1% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q2 2024, the lowest since early 2024, largely due to the impact of U.S. tariffs [5]. Group 3: European Central Bank's Position - Unlike the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB) does not have a mandate to create jobs, focusing instead on maintaining low inflation, which may delay any potential rate cuts until inflation stabilizes over a longer period [7]. - The ECB's decision to maintain key interest rates reflects a cautious approach to balancing internal political and policy pressures, with divisions between "hawkish" and "dovish" member states complicating the decision-making process [9].