Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the "14th Five-Year Plan" will bring two main upward opportunities for the A-share market: the cyclical recovery driven by anti-involution and structural growth opportunities from service consumption upgrades [1][2]. Group 1: Anti-Involution Theme - The anti-involution measures are expected to be a major focus of the "14th Five-Year Plan," potentially leading to an 18-24 month investment theme aimed at normalizing prices and investment returns across various industries [2][3]. - The "local government corporatization" mechanism established since the late 1970s has led to severe overcapacity and low investment returns, which may face stricter limitations during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period (2026-2030), prompting mergers and consolidations [3]. - Key sectors identified for anti-involution measures include automotive, batteries, lithium, photovoltaics, cement, chemicals, coal, steel, dairy, pork, liquor, and logistics, with leading companies like BYD, CATL, and Kweichow Moutai highlighted [3]. Group 2: Service Consumption Growth - Compared to developed markets, China's service consumption still has significant growth potential [4]. - Current per capita income in China is projected to reach $5,660 by the end of 2024, with service consumption accounting for approximately 46%, similar to the U.S. levels in 1973 [5]. - By 2035, the compound annual growth rate for per capita income is expected to be around 5%, with projections indicating that per capita income will reach $7,655 and service consumption share may rise to 51% [6]. - Specific sectors with investment opportunities in service consumption include healthcare, financial services, and cultural entertainment, with selected stocks such as Aier Eye Hospital, Tongce Medical, and Light Media identified as potential growth investments [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains a mid-term optimistic outlook for the A-share market, suggesting that the shift in residents' asset allocation towards the stock market will support a rebound [7]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratio for the CSI 300 index over the next 12 months is 14.4 times, indicating a potential short-term consolidation due to its high valuation compared to historical medians [7]. - Earnings per share for the CSI 300 index is expected to grow by 5.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a more substantial increase of 14.1% anticipated for the entire year [7].
“十五五”带来哪些潜在A股上行机会？
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-09-18 02:09