摩根大通：“十五五”带来哪些潜在A股上行机会？

Group 1: Core Opportunities from the 14th Five-Year Plan - Morgan Stanley identifies two main upward opportunities for the A-share market from the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan: the anti-involution theme and the structural growth opportunities from service consumption [1][2] - The anti-involution measures are expected to be a major focus of the 14th Five-Year Plan, aiming to reduce capacity and promote price recovery, which will help various industries achieve cyclical improvement [1][2] - The service consumption sector is projected to benefit from the government's goal of increasing residents' income during the new five-year plan, with significant growth potential in healthcare, financial services, and cultural entertainment [1][3] Group 2: Anti-Involution Theme - The anti-involution theme is anticipated to create an investment opportunity lasting 18-24 months, aiming to normalize prices and investment returns across affected industries [2] - The "local government corporatization" mechanism has led to severe overcapacity and low investment returns, which may face stricter limitations during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), potentially leading to mergers and acquisitions [2] - Key sectors identified for the anti-involution measures include automotive, batteries, lithium, photovoltaics, cement, chemicals, coal, steel, dairy, pork, liquor, and logistics, with notable companies like BYD, CATL, and Kweichow Moutai highlighted [2] Group 3: Service Consumption Growth Potential - Compared to developed markets, China's service consumption has significant growth potential, with current per capita income and service consumption share resembling the U.S. levels in the early 1970s [3] - By 2035, with a projected compound annual growth rate of about 5%, China's per capita income is expected to reach $7,655, and the service consumption share could rise to 51% [3] - Specific sectors such as healthcare, finance, and cultural entertainment show considerable room for growth, with selected stocks in these areas including Aier Eye Hospital, Tongce Medical, and Light Media [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall outlook for the A-share market remains optimistic in the medium term, supported by a shift in residents' asset allocation towards the stock market [4][5] - However, the short-term market may experience fluctuations due to the current high price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index, which stands at 14.4 times, exceeding the median since 2016 [5] - Effective implementation of anti-involution measures and moderate fiscal support are expected to sustain market expectations for earnings growth in the coming year [5]