Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-17 08:53Group 1 - The core driving factors of the Hong Kong real estate market are interest rate fluctuations, with a downward trend in the US benchmark interest rate expected to be a certainty in the near term [1][2] - The Hong Kong real estate market has entered a new cycle driven by policy changes and structural differentiation, with a significant rebound expected following the "withdrawal of tightening" policy in February 2024 [1][2] - The total transaction volume of new and second-hand residential properties in Hong Kong is projected to reach 53,099 transactions in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.5% compared to 2023 [1] Group 2 - The recovery of the Hong Kong market is attributed to the resonance of three main factors: policy, interest rates, and demand, with a shift from suppression to full stimulation in the policy environment after February 2024 [2] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority injected a total of HKD 129 billion into the market due to a strong Hong Kong dollar, leading to a significant drop in the 1-month HIBOR from 3.98% to 0.57% [2] - The introduction of talent recruitment plans has contributed to a year-on-year population growth in Hong Kong by June 2025, enhancing purchasing power and stabilizing the market [2] Group 3 - The current phase of the Hong Kong real estate market is characterized as an initial recovery stage, marked by a halt in price declines, a narrowing of price drops, and structural stabilization [3] - Transaction volumes have rebounded, and sentiment indicators have improved, indicating a shift in policy direction from "preventing bubbles" to "stabilizing the market" [3] - Leading indicators show a continuous decline in interest rates, increased supply, improved inventory digestion rates, and a positive impact on demand from population recovery [3]