Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with a general expectation of a 25 basis point cut, amidst concerns of weak employment, persistent inflation above target, and increasing political pressure [1][4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point cut to the 4.00%-4.25% range, marking the first cut since December of the previous year, with 105 out of 107 analysts predicting this outcome [1]. - The potential for a "four-way split" in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting is discussed, with differing opinions on whether to cut rates or maintain them [1][5][9]. - The FOMC statement and dot plot will provide insights into the Fed's future rate cut expectations, with speculation on whether the statement will acknowledge rising employment risks [4][8]. Group 2: Employment and Inflation Concerns - Recent employment data has shown significant weakness, with a downward revision of 910,000 jobs over the past year, leading to increased expectations for a rate cut [6]. - The labor market's deterioration has made it easier for officials to agree on a 25 basis point cut, although debates on the pace of future cuts remain complex due to ongoing inflation concerns [6][7]. - Political pressures are influencing the Fed's decision-making process, with potential implications for the voting dynamics within the FOMC [5][9]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December, with a potential for two additional cuts in 2026, bringing rates down to the 3%-3.25% range [11][12]. - Market reactions are expected to vary based on the outcome of the Fed's decision, with a 47.5% probability of a dovish 25 basis point cut potentially leading to a 0.5%-1% increase in the S&P 500 index [13]. - The market is advised to prepare for potential volatility, with key economic data releases in the coming weeks that could influence investor sentiment [13].
今夜,史上最“分裂”的一次美联储利率决议来了!
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-09-17 08:50