Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry is experiencing an unusual pricing cycle characterized by "off-season price increases and peak-season promotions," deviating from the traditional pattern of "off-season promotions and peak-season price increases" [1][4]. Group 1: Pricing Dynamics - In September 2025, polyester factories saw an average sales rate of 186.4% for polyester filament, with some factories reaching as high as 400% due to strong promotional policies [1]. - The price of PTA increased by 18% in a single month during the off-season due to maintenance shutdowns of several domestic PTA facilities, leading to a rise in polyester product prices [3]. - The market is witnessing a structural mismatch in capacity, where companies over-expand during peak seasons, resulting in excess supply, while reducing production during off-seasons due to inventory concerns, creating conditions for price increases [3][5]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Demand - The disconnect between market expectations and actual demand is a core reason for the current pricing anomaly, with external factors like geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices pushing up raw material costs [4][5]. - The cautious purchasing behavior of downstream weaving enterprises has led to a situation where they prefer "just-in-time" procurement rather than stockpiling, increasing uncertainty in production plans [7][9]. - The phenomenon of "off-season price increases" reflects a strong demand that exceeds expectations, driven by factors such as "export grabbing" [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The frequent price fluctuations disrupt normal production schedules and hinder the establishment of a stable pricing system, leading to a vicious cycle of "wait-and-see—demand—shrinkage—promotion—more waiting" [7][9]. - The profit distribution within the polyester industry is severely imbalanced, with upstream raw material producers benefiting from price increases while polyester manufacturers struggle with low margins [9][10]. - Small and medium-sized enterprises face significant challenges due to their limited ability to withstand price wars and cash flow pressures, exacerbated by the current pricing dynamics [10][11]. Group 4: Solutions and Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that breaking the current pricing cycle requires rebuilding trust between upstream and downstream players, moving from a "zero-sum game" mentality to a collaborative ecosystem [11][12]. - Addressing structural overcapacity on the supply side and actively exploring new market demands on the demand side are crucial for stabilizing the industry [12][13]. - The focus should shift from price competition to value competition, emphasizing technological innovation and optimizing capacity structures to escape reliance on promotions [12][13].
聚酯产业如何跳出“淡季涨价、旺季促销”怪圈?
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang·2025-09-18 03:16