一场联储会议，两种市场情绪

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points aligns with market expectations, but there are differing opinions within the committee regarding the extent of the cut [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, which was anticipated by the market [1]. - New board member Miran expressed a preference for a 50 basis point cut, indicating a divergence in opinions within the Fed [1]. - The immediate market reaction included a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield and fluctuations in gold prices, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rising [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Interpretations - Following the Fed's announcement, there was a notable shift in market sentiment, with traders increasing bets on at least one more rate cut this year [1]. - Analysts highlighted that the initial market response to the Fed's decision was based on prior expectations, but subsequent interpretations and analyses shaped the market's direction [2][5]. - The commentary from major financial institutions, such as Morgan Stanley and CNBC, indicated a more hawkish outlook, suggesting that the Fed may only cut rates once by 2026, which contrasts with market expectations [5]. Group 3: Powell's Statements and Market Sentiment - Powell's emphasis on evaluating conditions "meeting by meeting" suggests a reluctance to signal a continuous rate-cutting cycle, which may lead to uncertainty in market expectations [4]. - The focus on employment risks in Powell's remarks indicates a shift towards prioritizing job market stability over inflation concerns [4]. - The market's reaction to Powell's statements included a rebound in two-year Treasury yields and a recovery in the 10-year yield, underscoring the importance of long-term rates in influencing the economy [5].