Societe Generale(US:SCGLY) 智通财经网·2025-09-18 03:52Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the British pound is facing multiple adverse factors, leading to expectations of further depreciation [1] - The UK is experiencing a combination of unfavorable fiscal and monetary policies, with a tightening budget expected in November followed by interest rate cuts [1] - High inflation is causing the Bank of England to slow its rate-cutting pace, with only 50%-60% of its rate cycle completed compared to 80%-90% by the European Central Bank [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England in November are close to 50% [1] - The euro is projected to rise to 1.25 against the dollar next year, while the pound is viewed as the weakest European currency [1] - The EUR/GBP exchange rate is expected to gradually rise to 0.90, aligning with short-term interest rate differentials [1] Group 3 - On the trading strategy front, Société Générale suggests utilizing structural opportunities in the options market due to high bullish skew in EUR/GBP [4] - Specific strategies include buying a 3-month EUR/GBP call spread (strike prices 0.8720/0.8860, zero cost) and a 2-month call option (strike price 0.88, knock-out price 0.9050) [4] - The 3-month digital call option (strike price 0.90) has an indicative quote of 12.5% [4] Group 4 - Positions in the first two strategies are recommended to be held until expiration, while the digital call option may be closed early to recover time value [8] - Investors using the call spread strategy face unlimited risk if EUR/GBP exceeds 0.90, as the nominal amount of the short strike exceeds that of the long strike [8] - The knock-out call option will become void if EUR/GBP reaches 0.9050, while the risk of the digital call option is limited to the initial premium [8]