时隔一年，美联储再次降息有何影响？机构如此研判

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since September 2024, which aligns with market expectations [2][3][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut - The decision to cut rates was supported by many analysts, indicating it was anticipated by the market [2][3] - The Fed's dot plot suggests three rate cuts for the year, with the next expected in October and December [3][4] - The primary driver for the rate cut was weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data, indicating a slowdown in the U.S. economy [3][4] Group 2: Economic Predictions and Market Reactions - The Fed raised GDP and inflation forecasts while lowering unemployment rate predictions [2][3] - Following the announcement, major asset prices experienced a V-shaped reversal, with little change in market expectations for future rate cuts [2][3] - The implied probability of a rate cut in October remains around 80%, with an average of 1.8 more cuts expected this year [2][3] Group 3: Divergence within the Federal Reserve - There are noticeable divisions within the Fed, with Chairman Powell seeking a suitable path for rate cuts amidst differing opinions [6][7] - The internal disagreements are exacerbated by external pressures, particularly from former President Trump, who has influenced Fed decisions through nominations [7][6] Group 4: Impacts on Financial Markets - Historical trends suggest that a Fed rate cut typically leads to an increase in stock prices, a decline in bond yields, and mixed effects on the dollar and gold prices [8][9] - The recent rate cut is expected to have a limited impact on asset performance due to already high market expectations [8][9] - The potential for a global wave of rate cuts may arise, with the Chinese central bank also having room for monetary easing [10]