Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-18 04:10Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to between 4.00% and 4.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - This marks the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve in nine months since December of the previous year [1] - The decision to lower rates was influenced by a relaxation of inflation requirements, but future rate cuts will depend on long-term inflation levels and the fragility of the job market [1] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is expected to continue experiencing a stagflation cycle [1] - There is increasing divergence in the Federal Reserve's outlook on long-term interest rates [1] - In the commodities market, a prior exit of bullish positions in precious metals and base metals led to a price decline [2] - The medium-term outlook remains positive for precious metals and copper, but significant economic underperformance could quickly reduce risk appetite [2] - Current tightness in U.S. dollar liquidity may lead to potential short-term liquidity shocks [2]