欧洲央行在贸易不确定性下维持利率不变

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain the eurozone interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive month amid trade slowdown and political instability in France, with the key deposit rate held at 2% as expected by the market [1] Economic Outlook - The ECB raised its inflation forecasts for this year and next by 0.1 percentage points, predicting a 2.1% increase in overall prices for the eurozone in 2025 and a 1.7% increase in 2026 [1] - The eurozone's economic growth forecast for this year was upgraded from 0.9% to 1.2%, primarily due to strong export growth to the US in the first half of the year [1] - However, the economic growth forecast for next year was downgraded from 1.1% to 1% due to increased trade protectionism leading to a decline in global demand [1] Interest Rate Policy - ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the central bank will not commit to a specific interest rate path, with decisions depending on data performance [1] - Market expectations suggest at least one more rate cut in the current cycle, although the new inflation forecasts and Lagarde's statements have reduced the likelihood of further cuts [1] Challenges Facing the Eurozone - The eurozone is currently facing multiple challenges, including a political deadlock in France that threatens investment and a deteriorating export outlook for Germany amid rising trade protectionism [1]