美联储终于降息了！但不要上头，这次降息跟去年不一样

Core Viewpoint - The recent 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve marks the beginning of a new easing cycle, but the underlying logic differs significantly from last year's cuts, leading to potential risks alongside opportunities [2][4]. Group 1: Differences in Rate Cuts - The current rate cut is categorized as a "recessionary cut," aimed at addressing a deteriorating job market and persistent inflation, contrasting with last year's "preventive cut" which was initiated under stable economic conditions [4][7]. - Recent non-farm payroll data has been significantly revised downward, indicating a rapid deterioration in the U.S. job market [6]. - The U.S. economy is facing stagflation, with inflation remaining far from the 2% target, complicating the effectiveness of the rate cut [7]. Group 2: Global Response and Economic Context - Unlike last year, other countries are not under significant exchange rate pressure and have already adjusted their rates, limiting the global stimulus effect of the Fed's rate cut this year [9]. - The European Central Bank has already cut rates in June and is not expected to follow the Fed's lead immediately, indicating a lack of synchronized global monetary policy [9]. Group 3: China's Economic Strategy - China's economic stimulus approach has shifted from broad-based measures to targeted support, focusing on innovation and consumption rather than indiscriminate easing [10][12]. - Initiatives include encouraging small tech firms to go public and providing consumer loan subsidies to boost domestic demand, reflecting a more strategic economic policy [12]. - The current low-interest-rate environment limits further rate cuts, making it challenging to replicate last year's broad-based economic benefits [12].