华安期货：9月18日国债建议震荡思路，可考虑逢低布局多单

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to experience reduced supply pressure, while geopolitical factors and trade policy changes introduce significant uncertainty, maintaining risk-averse sentiment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw a general decline in yields, with long-term bonds performing better, showing a decrease of 2-4 basis points; the closing of government bond futures was up across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.31% [1]. - The overnight repurchase weighted rate for deposit institutions rose to approximately 1.48%, indicating a tightening in the interbank market liquidity due to ongoing tax payment impacts [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations and marking the resumption of rate cuts after nine months; the FOMC statement highlighted increased downside risks to employment and a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year, alongside rising inflation [1]. Group 3: Policy Measures - The State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce policies aimed at expanding service consumption, emphasizing the acceleration of artificial intelligence applications in service consumption and the effective use of structural monetary policy tools to enhance funding supply in the consumption sector [1].