邓正红能源软实力：美联储降息遇冷 国际油价不升反跌 库存数据暴露需求疲软

Core Insights - The current oil price decline is attributed to a combination of weak demand signals and a complex interplay of financial policies and market confidence, leading to a negative feedback loop in the oil market [1][3][4] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points, while typically supportive of energy demand, has been overshadowed by warnings of a weakening labor market, which has further dampened market sentiment [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Oil prices fell on September 17, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $64.05 per barrel, down 0.73%, and Brent crude at $67.95 per barrel, down 0.76% [1] - The market had largely priced in the 25 basis point rate cut, leading some investors to unwind hedges against larger cuts, which contributed to a stronger dollar and reduced the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities [2] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a decrease in crude oil inventories by 9.285 million barrels, but a significant increase in distillate inventories by 4.046 million barrels, indicating a mixed demand outlook [2] Group 2: Soft Power Model Insights - The "soft power" model by Deng Zhenghong highlights a collapse in the oil market's composite soft power, driven by a disconnection between financial policies, industry inventories, and monetary systems [3][4] - The model identifies three nested contradictions: the counterproductive effect of policy soft power, the structural divergence in inventory levels, and the impact of a strong dollar on oil pricing dynamics [3][4] - The current state of the oil market reflects a structural imbalance, with physical supply chain factors and financial settlement dimensions both contributing to a decline in market stability and reliability [4] Group 3: Future Trends - Short-term volatility is expected as Federal Reserve policies and inventory data continue to influence market sentiment, with oil prices likely to fluctuate between $62 and $68 per barrel [5] - Mid-term prospects depend on the potential for further rate cuts and improvements in economic data, which could either accumulate soft power momentum or reinforce downward pressure [5] - Long-term transformations in energy power dynamics are anticipated, with new soft power tools such as asymmetric strikes and carbon tariffs likely to impact pricing systems [5]