2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-09-18 05:29Core Insights - The competition between Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk has intensified, particularly in the oral medication sector for diabetes treatment [2] - Eli Lilly's orforglipron has demonstrated superior efficacy in blood sugar control and weight loss compared to Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide in the ACHIEVE-3 trial [2][3] - The ACHIEVE-3 study is the first head-to-head trial in the oral GLP-1 space, involving 1,698 type 2 diabetes patients [3][4] Efficacy Results - In the ACHIEVE-3 trial, the highest dose of orforglipron resulted in a 2.2% reduction in A1C levels, while the highest dose of oral semaglutide achieved a 1.4% reduction [3][4] - Participants receiving the highest dose of orforglipron lost an average of 8.9 kg (9.2%), compared to 5.0 kg (5.3%) for those on oral semaglutide [3][4] - 37.1% of participants on the highest dose of orforglipron achieved A1C levels below 5.7%, compared to only 12.5% for those on oral semaglutide [4] Market Dynamics - Eli Lilly's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached $28.2862 billion, a 41% year-over-year increase, with diabetes products contributing nearly half of this revenue [6] - The GLP-1/GIP dual-target agonist, tirzepatide, has become a significant revenue driver for Eli Lilly, with combined sales of tirzepatide products reaching $14.734 billion in the first half of 2025 [6][7] - Eli Lilly's market share in the U.S. GLP-1RA market has increased to 57.0%, surpassing Novo Nordisk's 42.5% [7] Future Outlook - The global market for GLP-1RA drugs is projected to exceed $150 billion by 2031, indicating substantial growth potential [8] - Eli Lilly has raised its full-year revenue forecast for 2025 to between $60 billion and $62 billion, reflecting strong performance in the diabetes segment [8] - The competition in the GLP-1 market is expected to intensify with more entrants and innovations, particularly in oral formulations and new indications [10][12]