Core Viewpoint - HSBC Global Investment Research maintains its previous forecast that the Federal Reserve will only lower interest rates twice by 25 basis points each before the end of 2026, bringing the target rate range down to 3.5%-3.75% [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Federal Reserve Rate Decision - On September 18, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - Future Rate Projections - HSBC projects two additional rate cuts of 25 basis points each in December of this year and March of next year, leading to a target range of 3.5%-3.75% by the end of 2026 [1] - Economic Factors Influencing Rates - Factors such as expansionary fiscal policy, inflation persistence due to tariff effects, and pressure from a depreciating dollar may keep the core PCE inflation relatively high in the U.S. through 2026 [1] - Labor Market Considerations - If the labor market worsens, particularly with an increase in unemployment claims, there is a possibility that the Federal Reserve may consider another rate cut of 25 basis points in October or a larger cut next year [1]
汇丰环球投资研究：预计美联储在2026年底前仅再分别两次降息25个基点
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-18 05:41