张尧浠：美联储年内降息次数不减、金价后市仍具看涨前景

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates this year and next, supporting a bullish outlook for gold prices despite short-term fluctuations [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On September 17, gold prices opened at $3689.51 per ounce, initially declined to $3660 before rebounding, reaching a high of $3707 after the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut [3]. - Following the rate cut, gold prices dropped to a low of $3646.07 but closed at $3659.77, reflecting a daily decline of $29.74 or 0.81% [3][5]. - The market anticipates mixed outcomes from upcoming economic data, but overall, the sentiment leans towards supporting gold prices [5]. Group 2: Long-term Outlook - The current interest rate cut cycle is expected to lead to a total of three rate cuts (75 basis points) this year and one next year, which will likely drive gold prices higher [5]. - Factors such as global monetary policy easing, weakening of the US dollar credit system, persistent geopolitical risks, and institutional demand for gold are expected to sustain a bullish trend for gold [5][6]. - The target price for gold remains at $4200 or higher, indicating a strong bullish foundation for the commodity [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The weekly chart shows gold prices have consistently bounced off the midline support and are expected to maintain an upward trend, supported by the upper Bollinger Band [6]. - The daily chart indicates that despite a recent pullback, the overall upward trend remains intact, with higher lows suggesting bullish momentum [8]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3650 and $3640, while resistance levels are at $3685 and $3706 [9].