本次美联储降息对美经济刺激作用有限

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on September 17, marking its first cut of the year, alongside balance sheet reduction measures [1] - The impact of the rate cut on the U.S. economy is expected to be limited, as the federal funds rate remains high at 4%-4.25%, and concerns about tariffs and supply chain uncertainties may hinder its effectiveness in stimulating inflation and employment [2] - The core CPI in the U.S. has risen from 2.8% to 3.1% over six months, while the overall CPI increased from 2.3% to 2.9%, indicating potential inflationary pressures from the combination of rate cuts and tariffs [2] Group 2 - Many central banks are hesitant to follow the Federal Reserve's lead in cutting rates, with the European Central Bank (ECB) opting to remain steady due to previous rate cuts and lingering concerns over inflation [3] - The Bank of Japan is also unlikely to cut rates, as it is currently in a tightening phase due to inflation and tariff considerations [3] Group 3 - Following the rate cut, the market exhibited unexpected movements, with the dollar index rising and oil prices falling, suggesting that the rate cut had already been priced in by the market [4] - The global stock markets showed mixed reactions, with emerging markets benefiting from capital inflows as a result of the Fed's rate cut [4] Group 4 - Despite the rate cut, the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, indicating concerns over rising inflation and emphasizing its independence [5] - The Fed's dot plot suggests an increase in the number of expected rate cuts for the year, with projections indicating a potential drop to a range of 3.5%-3.75% by the end of the year [5]