特朗普降息梦成真！年内首次，市场预期今年再降两次、明年再降两次，但美联储更谨慎

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking its first reduction in nine months, bringing the target range to 4% to 4.25%, the lowest level in nearly three years. However, Chairman Powell characterized this cut as a "risk management" move, indicating uncertainty about future rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - Market expectations diverge from the Federal Reserve's forecasts regarding the pace and depth of future rate cuts. The Fed's median prediction suggests two more cuts this year, while Wall Street anticipates a more sustained reduction, expecting two additional cuts in the remaining meetings of the year and two more in the first half of 2026 [3][4]. - The consensus among market traders and economists indicates a belief that there will be two more cuts this year, with a split within the Fed regarding the timing and number of cuts in 2026 [4][6]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Market Reactions - The differing expectations stem from contrasting confidence in the economy's "soft landing." Powell's hawkish signals suggest a cautious approach, while the market is more concerned about economic data, anticipating that the Fed may need to act more quickly [6][8]. - Following the announcement, financial markets exhibited confusion, with mixed reactions in stock indices and a volatile response in the bond market, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's signals [9].