BHP(US:BHP) 智通财经网·2025-09-18 06:59Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's analysis indicates that BHP is strategically adjusting to industry challenges while demonstrating strong financial performance and long-term value potential [1][2] Financial Performance - Morgan Stanley assigns an "Overweight" rating to BHP with a target price of AUD 46.50, and the current market capitalization ranges from USD 137.8 billion to USD 172.6 billion [2] - Projected net income for FY2025 is USD 51.262 billion, with EBITDA at USD 25.978 billion and net profit at USD 10.157 billion, resulting in an EPS of USD 2.00 [2] - Financial performance is expected to show volatility but resilience, with net profit forecasted to slightly increase to USD 10.449 billion in FY2026, then decrease to USD 9.851 billion in FY2027, before recovering to USD 10.293 billion in FY2028 [2] - Key financial ratios include a P/E ratio range of 12.1-14.0 times, EV/EBITDA of 6.1-7.2 times, and a return on equity maintained at a high level of 18.4%-22.7% [2] Business Strategy - BHP demonstrates production flexibility, with BMA's FY2026 production guidance set between 36 million to 40 million tons, partially offsetting the impact of the Saraji South mine closure [3] - Despite a recent ruling requiring BHP to pay AUD 30 million to approximately 1,100 workers, analysts believe that the layoffs will effectively mitigate mid-term production cost pressures [3] - The Saraji South mine's closure is manageable within the overall production guidance due to its limited contribution to the total output [3] Industry Environment - The coal royalty policy in Queensland and market volatility present dual challenges, prompting BHP to accelerate cost structure optimization [3] - Upside risks include stronger-than-expected commodity prices, depreciation of the Australian dollar, and higher-than-forecasted steel consumption in China [3] - Downside risks focus on project execution issues at Escondida copper mine, Olympic Dam copper-uranium mine, and Jansen potash project, as well as operational challenges in iron ore business [3] Valuation Methodology - The valuation approach employs a weighted average of 60% base scenario and 20% optimistic/pessimistic scenarios using a DCF method, with a WACC of 8.1% [3]