基本面持续弱化，矿价偏弱运行 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F 0 3 1 0 5 9 1 7 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 目 录 第一部分：综合分析与交易策略 * [16] A. A. K. * [16] A. A. K. K. GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 逻辑分析：本周铁矿价格高位持续回落。本周商品市场有色波动较大，带动商品市场情绪有所反复，而本轮铁矿价格波动不大，且随 着短期市场情绪和资金扰动接近尾声，矿价逐步回归基本面逻辑。基本面方面，供应端持续贡献较大增量，供应宽松格局得到延续， 进口铁矿港口库存持续较快增加；需求端，国内终端用钢需求难以看到显著好转。从交易逻辑来看，春节后市场交易逻辑有望集中在 上半年终端用钢需求恢复情况。上半年可能出现需求不及预期，2025年下半年以来国内用钢需求持续回落，在2025上半年高基数背 景下2026年上半年用钢需求预计贡献减量，国内铁矿石基本面的弱化有望延续，铁矿高估值预计难以持续。 整体来看，当前市场主要由宏观和资金主导，本周宏观情绪有所降温，矿价估值中性偏高。同时国内铁矿石基本面的弱化有望延续， 铁矿 ...

Mining & Energy Giants Drive January Performance of IDOGETF Trends is now VettaFi. Read More --The [ALPS International Sector Dividend Dogs ETF (IDOG)] gained 3.1% in January, driven by double-digit rallies in mining and energy holdings that reported record production and benefited from surging commodity prices. [BHP Group (BHP)] climbed 16% after announcing record copper and iron ore output, while Norwegian energy producer [Equinor ASA (EQNR)] advanced 13.5% following strong fourth quarter results, accordi ...

Altair Minerals (ASX: ALR) has unveiled significant IP geophysical results at its North Peters prospect, identifying major untested targets adjacent to high-grade gold intercepts.These results, alongside recent exploration updates, point to substantial potential for resource expansion within its Greater Oko Project in Guyana.Altair plans further drilling at North Peters in Q1 2026, and has the right to earn up to 70% of the Greater Oko Project, with all tenements in good standing.North Peters Targets Emerge ...

This press release may contain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Statements other than statements of historical facts included in this press release may constitute forward-looking statements and are not guarantees of future performance or results and involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Contact: BHP is planning to restart its Cerro Colorado copper mine in Chile. The mine, located in the Pampa Norte region, is part of BHP broader ...

Core Insights - Litchfield Minerals has been selected for the 2026 BHP Xplor global accelerator program, which provides non-dilutive funding and technical support for its Oonagalabi project in the Northern Territory [1][2] Funding and Support - Litchfield will receive US$500,000 in equity-free funding to enhance geological understanding and model refinement at the Oonagalabi project [2] - The funding is non-dilutive, ensuring that Litchfield's capital structure remains unaffected while gaining access to BHP's technical specialists and proprietary exploration methodologies [4] Validation of Geological Model - BHP's selection of Litchfield indicates confidence in the company's geological concept and systematic approach to discovery at Oonagalabi, which is being developed as a large-scale, multi-event mineral system [3][6] - The program is expected to significantly accelerate geological understanding and next-phase targeting at the Oonagalabi project [3][7] Opportunity and Endorsement - The recognition by BHP reinforces Litchfield's belief in the potential for a tier-one discovery at Oonagalabi, highlighting the geological architecture present [5] - BHP's exploration officer noted Litchfield's clear commitment to responsible and systematic project progression, aligning with the goals of the Xplor program [6][7]

Core Insights - BHP has selected 10 early-stage exploration and technology companies for the 2026 BHP Xplor program, marking the largest cohort since the program's inception [1] - The 2026 cohort emphasizes a connected approach to early-stage exploration, integrating geological insight, data, and emerging technologies [2] - The program aims to enhance understanding of mineral systems in remote and complex environments through interdisciplinary collaboration [3] Exploration Companies - FrontierX (Canada) focuses on uranium exploration and is undertaking a preliminary project to test geological concepts [5] - Litchfield Minerals (Australia) is advancing copper, zinc, lead, silver, and gold opportunities, particularly in the Oonagalabi project [6] - Orion Minerals (South Africa) is applying modern data analytics to identify new discovery opportunities in its copper and zinc asset portfolio [7] - Otrera Resources (South America) is focused on sediment-hosted copper systems, leveraging regional experience and modern geochemical approaches [8] - PT GeoFix (Indonesia) is a geoscience consultancy applying proprietary tools to test new copper-gold exploration concepts [9] - Utah Geological Survey (USA) is leading a regional mineral systems analysis to improve understanding of mineral potential in the eastern Great Basin [10] Technology Companies - RadiXplore (Australia) uses AI to analyze historical exploration records and modern data for copper exploration [11] - Mineural (Canada) employs AI to help exploration teams identify and prioritize mineral targets more efficiently [12] - VectOres Science (USA) develops non-invasive tools to support mineral exploration, focusing on real-time data for early identification of mineral systems [13] - Discovery Genomics (Canada) is advancing DNA sequencing as a tool for mineral exploration, testing microbial DNA signatures to identify buried mineral systems [14]

Core Viewpoint - Major copper producers are experiencing a rally due to supply disruptions in South America, China's infrastructure stimulus, and increasing demand from electric vehicles and renewable energy sectors, with copper futures up 40% since August [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Mining stocks are rallying, indicating investor expectations for robust industrial activity ahead [2] - Predictions of a prolonged copper shortage are growing, leading to interest in mining stocks [2] Group 2: Company Profiles - **BHP Group**: - Offers copper exposure with a diversified portfolio, including iron ore, petroleum, and coal, generating $51.3 billion in trailing revenue [3] - Stock has increased 52% over the past year, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13x, indicating expected earnings recovery [4] - Provides lower volatility with a beta of 0.66 and a dividend yield of 1.56% [4] - **Freeport-McMoRan**: - Closest to a pure copper bet among major U.S.-listed miners, generating $25.9 billion in trailing revenue [6] - Reported fourth-quarter earnings of $0.47 per share, exceeding estimates by 47%, marking four consecutive quarters of outperformance [6] - Stock has surged 80% over the past year, with EPS estimates expected to rise to $2.67 in 2026 [7] - **Southern Copper**: - Dominates profitability with a 52.4% operating margin and $13.2 billion in trailing revenue [10] - Stock has increased 132% over the past year, with a 39.3% return on equity [11] - Trades at a premium with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 27x, reflecting strong market demand for quality [11] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The three companies offer different risk-reward profiles for copper exposure, with Southern Copper leading in profitability, Freeport-McMoRan providing pure-play leverage, and BHP offering diversified stability [12]

格隆汇1月29日｜铜价创下历史新高后，美股上市铜矿商股价盘前上涨，必和必拓(BHP.US)涨4.1%，力 拓(RIO.US)涨3.3%。 ...

本文共4160字， 阅读需约14分钟 想进群看深度投研？现在就行动！ 点赞＋推荐＋分享到朋友圈，截图发给 Fafa（微信：rockflowfafa），马上开通 RockFlow 社群资格。 额外福利：年度 AI 报告合集，先到先得。 在过去二十年的叙事里，大多数投资者沉浸在"比特"吞噬"原子"的幻觉中，笃信软件定义一切，算法足以重构世界。 划重点 ① 过去二十年，互联网重构了世界，但也让投资者落入"比特吞噬原子"的陷阱。长期以来，有 色金属被固化为"传统行业"。但在 2026 年，工业金属已不再单纯是随波逐流的周期股，而是 AI 物理底座的"优先受益标的"。 ② 我们正处于能源介质大迁徙的奇点：铜作为算力血管面临品位通缩；铝作为"固态电力"享受 充分溢价；锡在半导体封装的微缩中化身沉默税收；镍则在高镍电池回归中重获估值主权。供 需两侧的"完美风暴"已然成型，十年资本支出断层带来的产量滞后，正让存量矿产资源迸发出 更大价值。 ③ 2026 年，投资有色金属的胜负手不再是博取波段价差，而是锁定稀缺资源。麦克莫兰 （FCX）凭借极致成本锚点对标早期能源巨头，美国铝业（AA）则充分收割能源套利。在美元 信用波动的背景 ...

自限制措施生效以来，中国港口金布巴铁矿库存持续处于高位，部分货物难以找到买家，正被转往其他 市场。 分析师补充称，块矿市场溢价的下跌也影响了力拓集团生产的皮尔巴拉混合块矿的定价，这可能为该公 司带来约12亿美元的潜在收入冲击。 力拓发言人亦拒绝置评。 报告称，通过国资背景的中国矿产资源集团有限公司推进的这项举措，正在改变这个长期由海运基准价 格主导的市场定价机制。高盛谨慎指出，鉴于产品组合、时间滞后和合同条款等因素，其估算并非实际 成交价格的完整代表，但表示该分析为评估当前定价动态提供了框架。 必和必拓发言人拒绝置评。该公司上周表示，与中矿资源的年度合同条款仍在谈判中。 分析师表示："我们的沟通显示，此项限制预计将延续至春节之后。必和必拓目前正承受定价冲击，但 维持其偏好的定价框架可能长期来看能保全更大价值。" 智通财经APP获悉，据高盛集团报告，由于中国对金布巴铁矿实施采购限制导致折扣扩大及块矿溢价暴 跌，必和必拓集团(BHP.US)可能面临高达20亿美元的定价压力冲击。 以马特·格林为首的分析师在1月27日的报告中指出，这些限制措施可能使该公司主要铁矿石粉矿产品在 现货市场上遭遇增量折扣，导致每年约10亿 ...