证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 19 日 1）铜 2025Q2，铜总产量为 51.62 万吨，同比增加 2%，环比增加 1%。南澳大利亚铜业公司 2025Q2 的铜产量创下历史新高。 Spence 的产量也因选矿厂给矿品位提高而增加。随着 Full SaL 的投产，Escondida 电解铜产量增加，但被较低的精矿给料品 位所抵消。 2025Q2，铜平均实现价格为 4.43 美元/磅，同比下降 3%，环 比下降 3%。 2）镍 2025Q2，Western Australia Nickel 镍产量为 300 吨，同比减少 99%，环比减少 87%。在临时停产期间，从库存中恢复了更多 的可销售产量。 3）铁矿石 2025Q2，铁矿石总产量为 7030 万吨，同比增加 2%，环比增加 14%。在 2025Q1 的重大天气影响之后，供应链表现强劲，生 产流动量创下历史新高，支撑了 WAIO 矿业公司创纪录的季度 产量。随着第二个选矿厂的扩产完成，Samarco 的产量继续增 加。 2025Q2，铁矿石成交均价为 79.93 美元/湿吨，同比下降 12%，环比下降 8%。 ...

7月18日（周五），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价攀升至逾一周最高，受助于投资者风险偏好增强和逢 低承接买盘。 伦敦时间7月18日17:00(北京时间7月18日00:00)，LME三个月期铜收盘上涨112.00美元，或1.16%，报每 吨9,778.50美元。 | | 7月18日LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 我屋 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 9778.50 | ↑ 112.00 | ↑ 1. 16% | | 三个月期铝 | 2629. 50 | 1 51.50 | ↑ 2.00% | | 三个月期锌 | 2818. 50 | 1 81.50 | ↑ 2. 98% | | 三个月期铅 | 2010. 00 | ↑ 37.00 | ↑ 1.88% | | 三个月期镍 | 15218.00 | 1 122.00 | ↑ 0. 81% | | 三个月期锡 | 33445.00 | ↑ 431.00 | ↑ 1. 31% | Marex高级基本金属策略师Alastair Munro表示，LME铜价已从7月2日创下的每吨 ...

必和必拓7月18日公布加拿大詹森钾肥项目第一阶段的最新成本和进度估算。称项目第一阶段已完成 68%，预计资本支出在70亿美元到74亿美元之间（包括意外开支），而最初预计为57亿美元；首次投产 时间将恢复至原定的27年度中期。集团2026和2027财年的资本支出指引仍为110亿美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - BHP reported record production levels for iron ore and copper in its annual operational review for the year ending June 30, 2025, highlighting significant achievements in its operations [1] Group 1: Iron Ore Production - BHP's iron ore business in Western Australia set multiple records, including annual production [1] - The overall performance in iron ore indicates strong operational efficiency and capacity utilization [1] Group 2: Copper Production - Copper production exceeded 2 million tons, marking a significant milestone for the company [1] - The Escondida copper mine in Chile achieved its highest production level in 17 years, showcasing the mine's recovery and operational improvements [1] - The Spence copper mine also reached a record high in production, contributing to the overall increase in copper output [1]

Group 1 - BHP Group reported record high production of iron ore and copper for the fiscal year, demonstrating the company's operational strength and resilience amid global uncertainties [1][2] - The company produced over 2 million tons of copper, with significant contributions from the Escondida copper mine in Chile, which reached its highest output in 17 years [1][2] - BHP's total copper production for the fiscal year was 2.0167 million tons, an 8% increase from the previous fiscal year's 1.865 million tons [2][3] Group 2 - The demand for global commodities remains resilient, driven by renewable energy investments, grid construction, strong machinery exports, and electric vehicle sales [2] - Despite potential economic slowdowns and trade tensions, stimulus measures from China and the U.S. are expected to mitigate short-term impacts on demand [2] - BHP's fourth-quarter copper production was 516,200 tons, up from 510,800 tons in the previous quarter and 2.25% higher than the same quarter last year [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - BHP's fourth-quarter and annual operational report indicates rising costs and delays in its Canadian potash project, while iron ore and copper production have slightly increased, reaching historical highs [1][2]. Group 1: Potash Project - BHP has invested heavily in the potash sector, completing 68% of the Jansen project phase one, with estimated costs rising from $5.7 billion to between $7 billion and $7.4 billion [1]. - Potential oversupply in the market may delay the phase two execution of the Jansen project by two years [1]. - The company is considering extending the execution timeline for phase two of the Jansen project as part of its regular review of capital projects [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Production - In the fourth quarter, BHP's iron ore production reached 70.3 million tons, bringing the fiscal year 2025 iron ore production to 263 million tons, close to the upper limit of its guidance range [1]. - The fiscal year 2024 iron ore production is projected at 260 million tons, reflecting a growth rate of 1% [1]. - BHP's Western Australia iron ore operations set multiple records, including annual production [1]. Group 3: Copper Production - BHP's copper production increased by 2% in the fourth quarter, with the Escondida project in Chile achieving its highest annual output in 17 years [2]. - Total annual copper production exceeded 2 million tons, marking an 8% year-on-year increase and setting a new record [2]. - The CEO highlighted the resilience of global commodity demand since 2025, despite challenges in the market [2].

期货热点追踪 必和必拓2025财年铜产量创新高，首次突破200万吨，却预警明年下降，市场供需预期生变？ 相关链接 ...

Production Performance - BHP Group's iron ore output, a key revenue driver, increased by 2% compared to the previous year's quarter [1]

必和必拓：上调加拿大Jansen Potash第一阶段项目资本开支预期至70亿-74亿美元，公司最初预计57亿美 元。 预计Jansen第一阶段项目将于2027财年中期投产。 预计全年资本开支和勘探开销大约为110亿美元。 ...

必和必拓：预计2026财年埃斯孔迪达铜矿的铜产量将在115至125万吨之间；预计四季度铜产量为51.62 万吨，同比增长2%。预计四季度能源煤炭产量为410万吨，同比增长8%。 ...