Apple(US:AAPL) 智通财经网·2025-09-18 06:59Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Apple (AAPL.US) with a target price of $240, indicating a positive outlook for the iPhone 17 series based on early delivery times and demand trends compared to the previous year [1][3]. Group 1: iPhone 17 Series Performance - Early delivery times for the iPhone 17 series are either flat or slightly extended compared to last year, suggesting a potential year-on-year increase in early demand [1]. - The iPhone 17 Pro Max has a delivery time of 22.5 days in the U.S. and an international average of 24 days, significantly longer than the initial 19.4 days [1][2]. - The iPhone 17 standard model shows the strongest performance with a U.S. delivery time of 15.5 days and an international average of 19 days, extending by 6.5 days and 9 days year-on-year, respectively [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Production Insights - The early supply situation for the iPhone 17 series is better than last year, attributed to improved production yields and expanded capacity at Indian factories, where Apple is producing and shipping all new models simultaneously for the first time [2]. - User upgrade motivations are primarily driven by the replacement of older devices, with an average iPhone replacement cycle of about 5 years, indicating that users of the iPhone 12 are likely to upgrade this year [2]. Group 3: Financial Projections - Morgan Stanley projects a 6.5% revenue growth for Apple in fiscal year 2026, with iPhone revenue expected to grow by 5.5% and service revenue by 12% [3]. - The gross margin is anticipated to remain stable at around 46.9%, with earnings per share reaching $8.00 [3]. - In a bullish scenario, an accelerated iPhone replacement cycle could lead to higher revenue and earnings per share growth, while a bearish scenario assumes demand weakness and tariff pressures could slow growth [3].