美元大逆转，鲍威尔的讲话为何引发市场狂动？

Core Points - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - Fed Chairman Powell explained the rationale behind the rate cut during the press conference following the September meeting [3] Economic Forecasts - The Fed predicts an additional 50 basis points cut by the end of this year, followed by 25 basis points cuts each year for the next two years [4] - Unemployment is expected to rise slightly but remain low, while overall inflation is described as "slightly high" [4] Inflation and Economic Growth - Inflation has rebounded recently but remains at a high level, with consumer spending decreasing contributing to a slowdown in economic growth [5] - The PCE price index is projected to rise by 2.7% in August, with core PCE increasing by 2.9% [5] Labor Market Changes - Changes in the labor market, particularly due to immigration policy adjustments, have led to decreased labor demand [5] - The Fed may adjust its policy towards a more neutral stance as the labor market is no longer robust [5] Future Rate Decisions - Powell indicated that the Fed is not in a hurry to make significant rate adjustments, with the goal of stabilizing inflation around 2% [5] - The Fed's forecast for the federal funds rate by the end of 2025 is a median of 3.6%, lower than previous predictions [6] Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, the dollar initially fell significantly, reaching its lowest point since 2022, but rebounded after Powell's remarks [7] - Market expectations indicate a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in October, with a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December being likely [9]