英镑：多重不利或走弱，法兴给出交易策略

Core Insights - The article indicates that the British pound is facing multiple adverse factors, leading to expectations of further depreciation [1] - The combination of fiscal and monetary policies in the UK is unfavorable, with a tightening budget expected in November and subsequent interest rate cuts [1] - High inflation is causing the Bank of England to slow its rate-cutting pace, with the current rate cycle only 50%-60% complete compared to 80%-90% for the European Central Bank [1] Summary by Category Economic Factors - The UK government is struggling to control spending, making tax increases unavoidable [1] - Market expectations for a nearly 50% chance of a rate cut by the Bank of England in November [1] Currency Forecast - The euro is projected to rise against the dollar to 1.25 next year, with the pound seen as the weakest European currency [1] - The EUR/GBP exchange rate is expected to rise to 0.90 [1] Trading Strategies - Société Générale suggests utilizing structural opportunities in the options market due to the high bullish skew in EUR/GBP [1] - Specific strategies include buying a 3-month call spread, 2-month call options, and 3-month digital call options [1] - Recommendations for holding the first two strategies until expiration, while the digital call option may be closed early due to slow appreciation [1] Risk Warnings - Investors buying call spreads face unlimited risk if EUR/GBP exceeds 0.90 [1] - Knock-out call options become invalid if they touch 0.9050 [1] - Digital call options have limited risk to the initial premium, but rapid spot appreciation poses Gamma risk requiring hedging [1]