合成橡胶：9月18日跌1.85%，后市或区间波动

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for synthetic rubber has experienced a decline, with the main contract showing weak performance and a nearly 1.85% drop in price [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On September 18, the main contract for synthetic rubber opened at 11,570.0 CNY/ton, fluctuating between a high of 11,590.0 CNY and a low of 11,380.0 CNY [1] - The overall market for synthetic rubber is currently in a downward trend, with weak performance observed [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Southwest Futures predicts that the synthetic rubber market will remain volatile this week, influenced by poor industry profits and fluctuating prices of raw material butadiene [1] - The price of butadiene has stabilized, and processing losses have slightly narrowed; however, the capacity utilization rate on the supply side has decreased to around 73%, which is still relatively high year-on-year [1] - Demand from enterprises is better than expected, with an increase in capacity utilization rates [1] - Inventory levels for manufacturers and traders are high both month-on-month and year-on-year, providing some support for prices [1] Group 3: Production Insights - Recent reboots of most styrene-butadiene rubber facilities have led to increased domestic production and ample supply [1] - Some private facilities are undergoing maintenance, but the futures market remains weak, leading to an increase in inventory [1] - This week, a reduction in supply is expected to manifest, potentially leading to lower spot prices and slight decreases in inventory levels [1] Group 4: Demand Trends - Last week, tire manufacturers increased their capacity utilization rates, and it is expected that most companies will maintain production levels this week, with slight fluctuations in overall capacity utilization [1] - The BR2511 contract is anticipated to fluctuate within the range of 11,250 - 11,700 CNY [1] Group 5: Price Dynamics - Recent butadiene prices have remained firm, with tight availability of spot cargoes before shipments arrive [1] - The market is currently characterized by cautious purchasing behavior from end-users, leading to a weak outlook for the futures market [1]