前央行官员称，即使高市早苗胜选，日本央行仍有可能在10月加息

Core Viewpoint - The timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan may not be delayed due to potential political changes, with indications that a hike could occur as early as October, regardless of the outcome of the ruling party leadership election [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Fundamentals - Tomoyuki Shimoda emphasizes that the upcoming results of the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election, including the potential victory of Sanae Takaichi, will have limited actual impact on Japan's monetary policy [2]. - The environment for interest rate hikes is forming, driven by robust corporate profits, structural labor shortages leading to wage increases, and rising food costs, which collectively keep inflation elevated [2]. - Key indicators for the Bank of Japan's decision in October include the "Tankan" business sentiment survey data to be released on October 1 and the stability of the stock market [2]. Group 2: Political Implications - Sanae Takaichi is known for advocating a dual stimulus approach reminiscent of "Abenomics" and openly opposes interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [3]. - There are doubts about Takaichi's ability to implement policies that could weaken the yen, which, while beneficial for exports, would increase import costs and exacerbate inflation, a politically sensitive issue in Japan [3]. - The current political uncertainty may increase the likelihood of delaying interest rate hikes, as the new prime minister is expected to maintain a stance of fiscal expansion, particularly if Takaichi is elected [4]. Group 3: Market Divergence and Policy Dynamics - There is a divergence in the market regarding the timing of the Bank of Japan's next action, with most economists expecting a 25 basis point hike before the end of the year, but opinions vary on whether this will occur in October or January [4]. - The political transition period in Japan is expected to be filled with uncertainty, balancing the potential for fiscal expansion from a new government against the Bank of Japan's tightening needs due to inflation pressures [4]. - This complex interplay between fiscal and monetary policy may lead to upward pressure on Japanese government bond yields [4].