降息落地，黄金为何转跌？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25% aligns with market expectations, but the latest dot plot and Powell's statements have dampened expectations for rapid and significant rate cuts [1][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - This marks the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, following a pause in policy adjustments since December of the previous year [3] - The dot plot indicates a mixed outlook among officials, with one member advocating for no cuts this year, while others suggest varying degrees of cuts, with a consensus hinting at three total cuts of 25 basis points each [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the rate decision, gold prices initially surged to $3707 per ounce, reaching a historical high, before experiencing a decline of nearly $50, settling at $3645.18 per ounce [1] - The market's reaction to the Fed's decision reflects uncertainty, with analysts noting that Powell's characterization of the cut as a "risk management" move led to profit-taking [4] Group 3: Future Expectations - Traders are currently pricing in a 90% probability of another 25 basis point cut in the upcoming October meeting, up from 74.3% the previous day [4] - Analysts predict that gold prices may experience further corrections, potentially dropping to around $3600 per ounce in the short term [4] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The recent decline in gold prices is seen as a typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction, but ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties may attract new buyers [5] - Notably, gold prices have nearly doubled over the past two years, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 40%, indicating strong demand driven by central bank purchases and diversification away from the dollar [5]