Core Viewpoint - The prediction made by Jack Ma regarding the real estate market, stating that housing prices would become as cheap as scallions, is now being validated as the market experiences significant price declines, aligning with his forecast [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since the second half of 2021, the domestic real estate market has entered a long-term adjustment phase, with prices in second and third-tier cities like Zhengzhou, Wuhan, and Nanjing already declining [3]. - By 2023, first-tier cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen have also shown noticeable price adjustments, with average housing prices dropping over 30% from their historical peaks [3]. - In some third and fourth-tier cities, housing prices have indeed fallen to levels comparable to Jack Ma's "scallion" prices, with properties available for just tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands [3]. Group 2: Demographic Signals - China has entered an aging society, with the number of individuals aged 60 and above surpassing 310 million by 2024, and projected to exceed 400 million by 2035, leading to a significant decrease in housing demand from younger populations [6]. - The population of young people is declining, with 175 million from the post-90s generation and 145 million from the post-00s generation, indicating that most elderly individuals already own homes and do not require new purchases [6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing a long-term trend of oversupply, with 600 million existing homes capable of accommodating 3 billion people, coupled with millions of new homes entering the market annually [8]. - The decline in housing prices has diminished the investment appeal, causing potential buyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, further exacerbating the oversupply situation [8]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The government has announced plans to provide 6 million affordable housing units over the next five years, averaging 1.2 million units annually, aimed at meeting the housing needs of low-income urban residents [10]. - As affordable housing becomes more available, it is expected to significantly reduce the purchasing costs for low-income families, leading to a diversion of demand from the commercial housing market and increasing downward pressure on prices [10].
马云预言应验了?2026年的房价,3大信号已出现!
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-18 07:40