徐远：中国不会重蹈日本经济的覆辙！| 两说

Core Viewpoint - The discussion centers around whether China's economy could follow the path of Japan's economic bubble, with insights from economists on the current state of China's economy and the lessons learned from Japan's past experiences [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Comparison - After the 1985 Plaza Accord, Japan experienced a significant appreciation of the yen, leading to a short-term economic boom followed by a severe asset bubble burst, contrasting with China's current economic policies which have effectively avoided such a scenario [3]. - China's real estate prices surged rapidly but began to decline after 2021, indicating a proactive approach to prevent a housing bubble similar to Japan's in the early 1990s [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - China's monetary policy has remained relatively tight compared to Japan's historically loose monetary stance, which has helped prevent asset prices from reaching the levels seen in Japan during its bubble period [3]. - The Chinese government has learned from Japan's experience and has maintained a stable monetary policy to avoid excessive asset inflation [3]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy - Both economists express caution regarding the effectiveness of aggressive fiscal policies, citing Japan's experience where high government debt (250%-260% of GDP) did not lead to sustainable economic recovery [5]. - The short-term benefits of fiscal stimulus are acknowledged, but the long-term impact on market vitality and innovation remains questionable [5]. Group 4: Shift in Economic Logic - China's economic focus has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, emphasizing the importance of sustainable and quality-driven economic development [7]. - The belief is that China has absorbed lessons from Japan's economic history, suggesting that it is unlikely to repeat the same mistakes, with optimism for future economic prospects [7].