需求改善有限 沪锡震荡回落【9月18日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract falling by 1.46% to 269,100 yuan/ton, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and limited improvement in domestic downstream consumption [1] - Domestic smelting plants are facing reduced operating rates, with a reported operating rate of 28.48% for refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi, marking a year-to-date low [1] - The recovery of tin mines in Myanmar is slower than expected, with significant production unlikely before November, while tin mine inventories in Yunnan are below the 30-day safety line, leading to increased processing costs and some companies experiencing production losses [1] Group 2 - The outlook for the tin market suggests that the combination of the Federal Reserve's dovish statements and hawkish comments will lead to a weak and volatile price trend, with a focus on lower integer support levels [2] - The LME inventory is stabilizing and domestic consumption is not improving, which is dragging down tin prices, while the supply of refined tin remains constrained due to regular maintenance at large smelting plants [2]