三重压力下的艰难妥协 降息难解美国经济之痛

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first action since December of the previous year and the first rate cut of 2025 [1][3]. Economic Conditions - The rate cut is seen as a response to deteriorating employment conditions, rising inflation pressures, and external political influences, rather than a proactive measure to stimulate the economy [3][4]. - The U.S. job market has shown signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% [3][7]. - Inflation has re-emerged, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.4% month-over-month in August, leading to an annual inflation rate of 2.9%, the highest level since January [3][7]. Fed's Dilemma - The coexistence of high inflation and weak employment has heightened the risk of stagflation, placing the Federal Reserve in a challenging position where it must balance between rising unemployment and potential runaway inflation [3][6]. - The rate cut is characterized as a "risk management decision," with Fed Chair Powell emphasizing the need for caution and suggesting that this should not be interpreted as the beginning of a sustained easing cycle [3][4]. Market Reactions - The decision revealed divisions within the Federal Reserve, as one member voted against the cut, advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction, reflecting political pressures from the White House [5]. - Financial markets reacted sharply, initially rising but then reversing course, indicating a lack of confidence in the Fed's ability to navigate the current economic complexities [5][6]. Future Outlook - Predictions suggest that U.S. CPI growth may continue to exceed the Fed's 2% target in the coming months, with ordinary American households feeling the dual pressures of job insecurity and rising grocery prices [7]. - The rate cut is viewed as insufficient to address deeper structural issues within the U.S. economy, with the challenges of stagflation remaining unresolved and potentially intensifying in the future [6][7].