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鲍威尔的最后一搏?新美联储通讯社:降息是权衡“政治”和“经济”压力后的艰难选择
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-09-18 07:52

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that Powell is engaging in a high-risk policy gamble by choosing to cut interest rates without clear signs of an impending recession, marking his third attempt at such a delicate maneuver during his tenure [2][3]. Economic Context - The decision to lower interest rates is largely attributed to a significant slowdown in the labor market, with revised data showing that the average job growth for three months in August dropped from an initial report of 150,000 to 29,000, indicating substantial underlying weakness [3]. - Some economists believe that the Federal Reserve's actions, including the recent 50 basis point cut, are not aggressive enough to address the current economic challenges [3]. Structural Changes and Risks - There are concerns that the Federal Reserve may misinterpret structural changes in the economy as temporary cyclical weakness, which could lead to excessive rate cuts [4]. - Policies from the Trump administration, such as immigration restrictions and increased tariffs, may be permanently altering the economy's production capacity, raising fears about the risks of over-lowering interest rates [4]. Political Pressure and Consensus - Powell faces significant political pressure while trying to maintain consensus within the Federal Reserve, which is a major test of his leadership [5]. - Despite differing views on the economic outlook, Powell has managed to keep the consensus intact, with three regional Federal Reserve bank presidents supporting the recent rate cut [5]. Future Challenges and Opportunities - The Federal Reserve is likely to face more contentious debates regarding interest rate predictions, with some members believing no further cuts are necessary this year [7]. - Powell acknowledges the dual risks of labor market weakness and persistent inflation, indicating that there is no risk-free path forward [7]. Historical Context and Potential Outcomes - The article outlines three potential outcomes of Powell's policy gamble, including the ideal scenario of a "soft landing" similar to the mid-1990s, the risk of igniting inflation similar to the late 1960s, and the historical failures of rate cuts to prevent recessions in 1990, 2001, and 2007 [8].