市场盼大降，美联储偏谨慎！鲍威尔到底怕什么？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, announced a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first reduction since December 2024, with a target range now set at 4.00%-4.25% [2][3] Economic Indicators - U.S. GDP growth for the first half of the year was approximately 1.5%, down from 2.5% the previous year, indicating a slowdown in economic activity [4] - The median forecast for GDP growth is 1.6% for this year and 1.8% for next year, slightly higher than previous estimates [4] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.3% in August, but has remained stable over the past year [4][5] Labor Market Dynamics - Non-farm payroll growth has significantly slowed, averaging only 29,000 new jobs per month over the past three months, attributed to a decline in labor supply growth [4][5] - The median unemployment rate forecast for the end of this year is 4.5%, with a slight decrease to 4.4% in subsequent years [5] Inflation Trends - Current inflation levels have decreased from mid-2022 highs but remain above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [5][6] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.7% over the past 12 months, with core PCE increasing by 2.9% [5] - The median PCE inflation forecast is 3.0% for this year, decreasing to 2.6% in 2026 and further to 2.1% in 2027 [5] Policy Outlook - The FOMC's median projection indicates an appropriate federal funds rate of 3.6% by the end of this year, with further reductions expected in subsequent years [7] - The recent rate cut reflects a shift in risk perception, balancing the need to manage inflation against potential economic downturns [11][12] - Political factors are influencing monetary policy decisions, as evidenced by the voting behavior of newly appointed Fed Governor Milan [11] Market Reactions - The market has responded positively to the rate cut, viewing it as a dovish signal, but the Fed's cautious approach indicates a reliance on data and a careful navigation of economic uncertainties [12]