8月财政收支放缓，逆周期政策加码必要性上升

Core Insights - The fiscal data for August indicates a decline in both revenue and expenditure, aligning with weakening economic indicators, suggesting an urgent need for accelerated policy implementation and new investment-promoting measures [1][6] Revenue Summary - From January to August, national general public budget revenue grew by 0.3% year-on-year, with a slight acceleration of 0.2 percentage points compared to the first seven months [1] - In August, the general public budget revenue reached 12,359 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.0%, but a deceleration of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Tax revenue increased by 3.4% year-on-year, but this was a slowdown of 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, while non-tax revenue saw a decline of 3.8%, although the drop was less severe than in the previous month [1][2] Expenditure Summary - General public budget expenditure in August was 18,587 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, but a deceleration of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month [4] - Infrastructure spending saw a notable decline, with four key categories (energy conservation, transportation, urban community affairs, and agriculture) collectively decreasing by 10.1% year-on-year, a significant increase in the rate of decline compared to the previous month [4][5] - Social welfare and health expenditures grew by 10.9% and 2.5% year-on-year, respectively, but both experienced a slowdown compared to the previous month [5] Land and Fund Revenue - Government fund budget revenue in August was 3,325 billion yuan, down 5.7% year-on-year, marking a significant decline of 14.6 percentage points from the previous month [6] - Revenue from state land use rights sales was 2,313 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, with a notable slowdown in the rate of decline compared to the previous month [6] Economic Outlook and Recommendations - Analysts suggest that the current economic downturn is accelerating, indicating a rising necessity for timely policy adjustments to stimulate growth [6][7] - Recommendations include increasing central fiscal expansion and implementing larger fiscal subsidies to stabilize domestic demand [7] - The potential for additional government bond issuance in the fourth quarter is highlighted if budget revenue continues to weaken alongside declining land revenue [7]