3 6 Ke·2025-09-18 09:17Group 1: Starbucks China Business Sale - The sale of Starbucks' China business is nearing completion, with potential bidders including Boyu Capital, Carlyle Group, EQT, and Sequoia China, with a decision expected by the end of October [1] - The bidders are all financial investors, following the precedent set by McDonald's China sale, but local consumer giants may have better operational experience and financial strength [1] - The potential for local consumer giants, such as Alibaba, Meituan, Tencent, and Haidilao, to take over Starbucks China is highlighted, suggesting they could be more suitable buyers [1] Group 2: Haidilao's Position - Haidilao, despite being a hotpot chain, shares a similar business core with Starbucks as both operate social spaces rather than just food service [2] - Haidilao's recent business expansion efforts, including selling bread and launching community stores, indicate its evolution into a "startup incubator" [3] - The need for growth is pressing for Haidilao, as its revenue and net profit declined in the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 20.703 billion yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The overall restaurant consumption market is experiencing a downturn, affecting high-ticket items like hotpot, while new tea drinks are thriving [6] - New tea drink brands have seen significant growth, with companies like Gu Ming and Mi Xue Ice City going public and achieving high stock price increases [6] - Haidilao's attempts to create new brands have not yet achieved significant scale, with other restaurant income only contributing 2.9% to total revenue [6] Group 4: Strategic Opportunities - The sale of Starbucks presents Haidilao with an opportunity to quickly enter the tea drink market, leveraging Starbucks' established brand and store network [12] - Haidilao's strengths in local innovation and commercial real estate negotiations could address Starbucks' current challenges, such as rising rental costs and competition [4] - The combination of Haidilao and Starbucks could enhance negotiation power in commercial real estate, potentially leading to better lease terms and store placements [15] Group 5: Challenges in Acquisition - The estimated valuation for Starbucks' China business is between $5 billion and $6 billion, which poses a significant financial challenge for Haidilao [16] - Haidilao would likely need to form a consortium with financial investors to complete the acquisition, complicating decision-making due to a fragmented ownership structure [17] - Starbucks' management desires to retain brand control while selling a majority stake, which may conflict with Haidilao's operational ambitions [17][18]