印尼千亿豪赌惨败！给全世界提了个醒：中国行，我们未必也行

Core Insights - Indonesia's ambitious investment in nickel mining, amounting to hundreds of billions, has faced severe setbacks due to a dramatic drop in nickel prices, undermining its goal to replicate China's success in the global nickel industry [1] - The country aimed to transition from being a raw material supplier to a manufacturing powerhouse, driven by the global demand for nickel in electric vehicle batteries [1] - Initial success in attracting international investment led to a rapid increase in nickel refining capacity, reaching 50% of global production, but this was short-lived as market imbalances and technological advancements reduced reliance on nickel [1] Group 1 - Indonesia's strategy involved banning nickel ore exports to attract foreign investment and develop its manufacturing sector [1] - The initial phase saw a surge in nickel processing plants, but the subsequent collapse in nickel prices led to production cuts, factory shutdowns, and layoffs [1] - The underlying issue was a supply-demand imbalance, exacerbated by China's innovation in lithium iron phosphate batteries, which significantly decreased the demand for nickel [1] Group 2 - Indonesia's strategic misstep was its failure to innovate while attempting to replicate China's model, leading to a lack of viable alternatives for nickel [2] - The failure of this billion-dollar gamble serves as a warning to developing countries that successful strategies in one context may not be universally applicable [2] - Each country must identify and pursue a development path that aligns with its unique circumstances rather than blindly imitating others [2]